Factor StudiedSource / StudyEstimated Effect on Armed Conflict Risk
10% increase in military spending in a context of regional tensionStockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI, 2022)+12% to +20% probability of military escalation within 3 years
Strengthening of military alliances (e.g., NATO, bilateral pacts) in a tense regionRAND Corporation (2021)+15% to +30% risk of military incident or strategic miscalculation
Deployment of troops or missiles near a disputed borderCenter for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS, 2020)+40% to +60% risk of escalation if the other party feels threatened
Active diplomatic dialogue in parallelPeace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO, 2022)−50% to −70% reduction in escalation risk even under high tension
Synthetic InterpretationWhen tensions already exist:
Arming or mobilizing increases the risk of war by approximately 30% to 60%,
Whereas engaging in serious diplomatic dialogue can reduce that risk by half or more.
In other words: in a tense environment, military buildup alone is more dangerous than protective, unless it is consistently accompanied by robust diplomatic efforts.